A comparison of some predictive models for modeling abortion rate in Russia

Sergey Soshnikov, Carl Lee, Vasiliy Vlassov, Maria Gaidar, Sergey Vladimirov

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionpeer-review

Abstract

Predictive modeling techniques are popular methods for building models to predict a target of interest. In many modeling problems, however, the focus is to identify possible factors that have significant association with the target. For this type of problem, it is very easy to stretch the interpretation of an association relationship to a causation relationship. Practitioners must pay special attention to such a misinterpretation when data are observational data. In addition, the process of data collection and cleansing are critical in order to produce quality data for modeling. In this article, an observational study is conducted to illustrate the issues about data quality and model building to identify potential important factors associated with abortion rate using data collected in Russia from year 2000 to 2009. Some pitfalls and cautions of applying predictive modeling techniques are discussed.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationSNPD 2013 - 14th ACIS International Conference on Software Engineering, Artificial Intelligence, Networking and Parallel/Distributed Computing
Pages115-120
Number of pages6
DOIs
StatePublished - 2013
Externally publishedYes
Event14th ACIS International Conference on Software Engineering, Artificial Intelligence, Networking and Parallel/Distributed Computing, SNPD 2013 - Honolulu, HI, United States
Duration: Jul 1 2013Jul 3 2013

Publication series

NameSNPD 2013 - 14th ACIS International Conference on Software Engineering, Artificial Intelligence, Networking and Parallel/Distributed Computing

Conference

Conference14th ACIS International Conference on Software Engineering, Artificial Intelligence, Networking and Parallel/Distributed Computing, SNPD 2013
Country/TerritoryUnited States
CityHonolulu, HI
Period07/1/1307/3/13

Keywords

  • Data Quality
  • Decision Tree
  • Ensemble
  • Gradient Boosting
  • LASSO
  • Neural Network
  • Partial Least Squares

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