Climate shocks and migration: an agent-based modeling approach: an agent-based modeling approach

Barbara Entwisle; Nathalie E. Williams; Ashton M. Verdery; Ronald R. Rindfuss; Stephen J. Walsh; George P. Malanson; Peter J. Mucha; Brian G. Frizzelle; Philip M. McDaniel; Xiaozheng Yao; Benjamin W. Heumann; Pramote Prasartkul; Yothin Sawangdee; Aree Jampaklay

doi:10.1007/s11111-016-0254-y

Climate shocks and migration: an agent-based modeling approach: an agent-based modeling approach

Barbara Entwisle, Nathalie E. Williams, Ashton M. Verdery, Ronald R. Rindfuss, Stephen J. Walsh, George P. Malanson, Peter J. Mucha, Brian G. Frizzelle, Philip M. McDaniel, Xiaozheng Yao, Benjamin W. Heumann, Pramote Prasartkul, Yothin Sawangdee, Aree Jampaklay

Geography & Environmental Studies

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40 Scopus citations

Abstract

This is a study of migration responses to climate shocks. We construct an agent-based model that incorporates dynamic linkages between demographic behaviors, such as migration, marriage, and births, and agriculture and land use, which depend on rainfall patterns. The rules and parameterization of our model are empirically derived from qualitative and quantitative analyses of a well-studied demographic field site, Nang Rong district, northeast Thailand. With this model, we simulate patterns of migration under four weather regimes in a rice economy: (1) a reference, “normal” scenario; (2) 7 years of unusually wet weather; (3) 7 years of unusually dry weather; and (4) 7 years of extremely variable weather. Results show relatively small impacts on migration. Experiments with the model show that existing high migration rates and strong selection factors, which are unaffected by climate change, are likely responsible for the weak migration response.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	47-71
Number of pages	25
Journal	Population and Environment
Volume	38
Issue number	1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1007/s11111-016-0254-y
State	Published - Sep 1 2016

Keywords

Agent-based model
Climate change
Migration
Thailand
Weather

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10.1007/s11111-016-0254-y

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Entwisle, B., Williams, N. E., Verdery, A. M., Rindfuss, R. R., Walsh, S. J., Malanson, G. P., Mucha, P. J., Frizzelle, B. G., McDaniel, P. M., Yao, X., Heumann, B. W., Prasartkul, P., Sawangdee, Y., & Jampaklay, A. (2016). Climate shocks and migration: an agent-based modeling approach: an agent-based modeling approach. Population and Environment, 38(1), 47-71. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11111-016-0254-y

@article{d92777ade21a4e8e849c365cdcc2c8b3,

title = "Climate shocks and migration: an agent-based modeling approach: an agent-based modeling approach",

abstract = "This is a study of migration responses to climate shocks. We construct an agent-based model that incorporates dynamic linkages between demographic behaviors, such as migration, marriage, and births, and agriculture and land use, which depend on rainfall patterns. The rules and parameterization of our model are empirically derived from qualitative and quantitative analyses of a well-studied demographic field site, Nang Rong district, northeast Thailand. With this model, we simulate patterns of migration under four weather regimes in a rice economy: (1) a reference, “normal” scenario; (2) 7 years of unusually wet weather; (3) 7 years of unusually dry weather; and (4) 7 years of extremely variable weather. Results show relatively small impacts on migration. Experiments with the model show that existing high migration rates and strong selection factors, which are unaffected by climate change, are likely responsible for the weak migration response.",

keywords = "Agent-based model, Climate change, Migration, Thailand, Weather",

author = "Barbara Entwisle and Williams, {Nathalie E.} and Verdery, {Ashton M.} and Rindfuss, {Ronald R.} and Walsh, {Stephen J.} and Malanson, {George P.} and Mucha, {Peter J.} and Frizzelle, {Brian G.} and McDaniel, {Philip M.} and Xiaozheng Yao and Heumann, {Benjamin W.} and Pramote Prasartkul and Yothin Sawangdee and Aree Jampaklay",

note = "Funding Information: This work was supported by generous grant support from the National Institutes of Health (R21 ES16729, R24 HD050924, K99/R00 HD067587) and from the National Science Foundation (BCS 0728822). Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2016, Springer Science+Business Media New York.",

year = "2016",

month = sep,

day = "1",

doi = "10.1007/s11111-016-0254-y",

language = "English",

volume = "38",

pages = "47--71",

journal = "Population and Environment",

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Entwisle, B, Williams, NE, Verdery, AM, Rindfuss, RR, Walsh, SJ, Malanson, GP, Mucha, PJ, Frizzelle, BG, McDaniel, PM, Yao, X, Heumann, BW, Prasartkul, P, Sawangdee, Y & Jampaklay, A 2016, 'Climate shocks and migration: an agent-based modeling approach: an agent-based modeling approach', Population and Environment, vol. 38, no. 1, pp. 47-71. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11111-016-0254-y

TY - JOUR

T1 - Climate shocks and migration: an agent-based modeling approach

T2 - an agent-based modeling approach

AU - Entwisle, Barbara

AU - Williams, Nathalie E.

AU - Verdery, Ashton M.

AU - Rindfuss, Ronald R.

AU - Walsh, Stephen J.

AU - Malanson, George P.

AU - Mucha, Peter J.

AU - Frizzelle, Brian G.

AU - McDaniel, Philip M.

AU - Yao, Xiaozheng

AU - Heumann, Benjamin W.

AU - Prasartkul, Pramote

AU - Sawangdee, Yothin

AU - Jampaklay, Aree

N1 - Funding Information: This work was supported by generous grant support from the National Institutes of Health (R21 ES16729, R24 HD050924, K99/R00 HD067587) and from the National Science Foundation (BCS 0728822). Publisher Copyright: © 2016, Springer Science+Business Media New York.

PY - 2016/9/1

Y1 - 2016/9/1

N2 - This is a study of migration responses to climate shocks. We construct an agent-based model that incorporates dynamic linkages between demographic behaviors, such as migration, marriage, and births, and agriculture and land use, which depend on rainfall patterns. The rules and parameterization of our model are empirically derived from qualitative and quantitative analyses of a well-studied demographic field site, Nang Rong district, northeast Thailand. With this model, we simulate patterns of migration under four weather regimes in a rice economy: (1) a reference, “normal” scenario; (2) 7 years of unusually wet weather; (3) 7 years of unusually dry weather; and (4) 7 years of extremely variable weather. Results show relatively small impacts on migration. Experiments with the model show that existing high migration rates and strong selection factors, which are unaffected by climate change, are likely responsible for the weak migration response.

AB - This is a study of migration responses to climate shocks. We construct an agent-based model that incorporates dynamic linkages between demographic behaviors, such as migration, marriage, and births, and agriculture and land use, which depend on rainfall patterns. The rules and parameterization of our model are empirically derived from qualitative and quantitative analyses of a well-studied demographic field site, Nang Rong district, northeast Thailand. With this model, we simulate patterns of migration under four weather regimes in a rice economy: (1) a reference, “normal” scenario; (2) 7 years of unusually wet weather; (3) 7 years of unusually dry weather; and (4) 7 years of extremely variable weather. Results show relatively small impacts on migration. Experiments with the model show that existing high migration rates and strong selection factors, which are unaffected by climate change, are likely responsible for the weak migration response.

KW - Agent-based model

KW - Climate change

KW - Migration

KW - Thailand

KW - Weather

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U2 - 10.1007/s11111-016-0254-y

DO - 10.1007/s11111-016-0254-y

M3 - Article

SN - 0199-0039

VL - 38

SP - 47

EP - 71

JO - Population and Environment

JF - Population and Environment

IS - 1

ER -

Climate shocks and migration: an agent-based modeling approach: an agent-based modeling approach

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Keywords

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