TY - JOUR
T1 - Empirical Fokker-Planck-based test of stationarity for time series
AU - Erkal, Cahit
AU - Cecen, Aydin A.
PY - 2014/6/10
Y1 - 2014/6/10
N2 - We propose a test of stationarity based on the drift coefficients of the Langevin type and the associated Fokker-Planck equations. The test relies on the estimation of the drift coefficients of the underlying probability densities and posits that a time series is nonstationary if the estimated drift term is a nonlinear function of the random variable of the observed time series and the Markov property holds. We provide ample empirical evidence that demonstrates that well- known stationary systems give rise to linear estimates of the drift coefficients, whereas nonstationary time series exhibit nonlinear estimates of the drift term. This does not, indeed, imply that a nonlinear drift term in the Fokker-Planck equation of a dynamic stochastic process causes nonstationarity.
AB - We propose a test of stationarity based on the drift coefficients of the Langevin type and the associated Fokker-Planck equations. The test relies on the estimation of the drift coefficients of the underlying probability densities and posits that a time series is nonstationary if the estimated drift term is a nonlinear function of the random variable of the observed time series and the Markov property holds. We provide ample empirical evidence that demonstrates that well- known stationary systems give rise to linear estimates of the drift coefficients, whereas nonstationary time series exhibit nonlinear estimates of the drift term. This does not, indeed, imply that a nonlinear drift term in the Fokker-Planck equation of a dynamic stochastic process causes nonstationarity.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84902449560&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1103/PhysRevE.89.062907
DO - 10.1103/PhysRevE.89.062907
M3 - Article
C2 - 25019851
AN - SCOPUS:84902449560
SN - 1539-3755
VL - 89
JO - Physical Review E - Statistical Physics, Plasmas, Fluids, and Related Interdisciplinary Topics
JF - Physical Review E - Statistical Physics, Plasmas, Fluids, and Related Interdisciplinary Topics
IS - 6
M1 - 062907
ER -