Evaluation de l'incertitude d'un modèle conceptual des écouments d'un aquifère de sédiments glaciaires et d'un modèle de transport de contaminant suite à un audit

Translated title of the contribution: Postaudit evaluation of conceptual model uncertainty for a glacial aquifer groundwater flow and contaminant transport model

Lawrence D. Lemke, Joseph A. Cypher

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

5 Scopus citations

Abstract

Numerical groundwater flow and contaminant transport modeling incorporating three alternative conceptual models was conducted in 2005 to assess remedial actions and predict contaminant concentrations in an unconfined glacial aquifer located in Milford, Michigan, USA. Three alternative conceptual models were constructed and independently calibrated to evaluate uncertainty in the geometry of an aquitard underlying the aquifer and the extent to which infiltration from two manmade surface water bodies influenced the groundwater flow field. Contaminant transport for benzene, cis-DCE, and MTBE was modeled for a 5-year period that included a 2-year history match from July 2003 to May 2005 and predictions for a 3-year period ending in July 2008. A postaudit of model performance indicates that predictions for pumping wells, which integrated the transport signal across multiple model layers, were reliable but unable to differentiate between alternative conceptual model responses. In contrast, predictions for individual monitoring wells with limited screened intervals were less consistent, but held promise for evaluating alternative hydrogeologic models. Results of this study suggest that model conceptualization can have important practical implications for the delineation of contaminant transport pathways using monitoring wells, but may exert less influence on integrated predictions for pumping wells screened over multiple numerical model layers.

Translated title of the contributionPostaudit evaluation of conceptual model uncertainty for a glacial aquifer groundwater flow and contaminant transport model
Original languageFrench
Pages (from-to)945-958
Number of pages14
JournalHydrogeology Journal
Volume18
Issue number4
DOIs
StatePublished - Jun 2010

Keywords

  • Conceptual models
  • Numerical modeling
  • Postaudit
  • USA
  • Uncertainty

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