Timely Disclosure of Key Performance Indicators and Preemptive Analysts’ Forecasts

In this study, we find a positive association between a timely disclosure of a KeyPerformance Indicator (KPI)—monthly comparable store sales (MCSS) in the retail industry—and the number of preemptive analysts’ sales forecasts. We also find a positive associationbetween the number of preemptive analysts’ forecasts and abnormal stock return volatilityimmediately before the firms’ public MCSS news dates. Furthermore, the size of the market’sreaction to analysts’ preemptive forecasts is similar to the market’s reaction to analysts’ forecastsafter managers’ public MCSS disclosures. Our results provide evidence regarding analysts’forecasting activities surrounding a timely KPI disclosure and suggest that managers’ publicdisclosure of timely KPI information is associated with analysts’ elevated efforts to collect anddisseminate private KPI information that preempts managers’ public MCSS disclosures. We alsofind that investors react to forecasts based only on analysts’ private KPI information in a mannersimilar to forecasts that also include managers’ public KPI information.