Using curriculum-based measurement to predict performance on state assessments in reading

The present study investigated the correlation and predictive value of curriculum-based measurement (CBM) procedures for performance on the Michigan Educational Assessment Program's (MEAP) fourth grade reading assessment. A 1-minute oral reading sample was used to predict MEAP performance 2 weeks later. A positive correlation was established between the two measures. The positive and negative predictive power of the reading sample was higher than the base rates of failing and passing the MEAP. This relationship has been demonstrated across 1,362 students during 8 years of MEAP testing. The results support the use of CBM for monitoring reading progress, and establishing which students are at risk for low reading skills and failing state tests.